# CPI Vertical Brief

Date: 2026-06-12

## Core thesis

CPI is a macro intelligence vertical, not a gambling vertical. The board can borrow simple prediction-market mechanics because bucketed probabilities are useful, but the purpose is to improve public understanding of inflation, policy timing, Japan bond-market pricing, and the real economy behind official CPI.

Japan has two useful but delayed public CPI surfaces:

- MIC / Statistics Bureau official CPI, which resolves the government-visible headline statistic.
- BOJ core CPI indicators, which adjust official data to remove selected institutional and transitory factors.

Industry leaders often see price pressure earlier through procurement, shipping, wages, energy, retail, marketing, and supply-chain data. CPI should turn those live fragments into auditable probability distributions, then compare them with official releases after the fact.

## Product frame

The first product is `ZweiPredict CPI Board`:

- simulation-only bucket probabilities for CPI, BOJ underlying CPI, yen, JGB yield curve, and supply-chain pressure
- official source board and release calendar
- contribution lane for price signals, expert commentary, and basket-weight proposals
- audit lane for forecast performance, model drift, and hindsight learning
- policy lane for BOJ, ministries, agencies, companies, investors, and citizens to learn together

The later product can become an index-token research system only after legal review:

- CPI research credit for contributors and model runs
- closed utility token for data access or review workflows
- ETD-style index token or derivative only if licensing, exchange, clearing, settlement, disclosure, suitability, tax, AML/KYC, and Japan regulatory gates are cleared

## Data and signal model

The vertical should compare slow official signals with faster private or public proxies.

Official anchors:

- national CPI and Ku-area Tokyo CPI
- BOJ core indicators
- JGB yield curve and auction data
- yen FX rates and import price signals
- wage and household survey indicators

Live and near-live proxies:

- supermarkets, convenience, restaurant, and e-commerce basket prices
- energy, electricity, gas, shipping, warehousing, insurance, and logistics costs
- rice, wheat, seafood, meat, fertilizer, minerals, semiconductors, copper, lithium, LNG, oil, and other Pacific Rim resource prices
- marketing sentiment, shrinkflation observations, promotions, regional supply pressure, and consumer substitution
- company disclosures, TDnet, earnings calls, procurement comments, and inventory behavior

## Why Japan

Japan needs a better public conversation around CPI, rates, household reality, JGB market function, and long-term fiscal sustainability. CPI can serve that conversation by making uncertainty visible instead of pretending one official number contains the whole economy.

The right posture is collaborative:

- not competing with BOJ or MIC
- not claiming official status
- not claiming a single private index is truth
- inviting ministries, agencies, companies, economists, market participants, and citizens into a transparent learning loop

## First-page message

The public page should say:

> CPI turns delayed inflation statistics, real-time price signals, and market expectations into a public-good probability board for Japan's economy.

It should not say:

> Bet on CPI, beat BOJ, or profit from Japan inflation.

## Build order

1. Static showing page and Markdown source notes.
2. Simulation-only local board with research credits and no wallet.
3. Official release calendar and source table.
4. Historical seed data for CPI surprise buckets.
5. Basket proposal engine and real-time proxy taxonomy.
6. Forecast performance ledger.
7. Counsel and regulator memo for any token, settlement, prediction market, or derivative pathway.